Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$647.58 - $1,306.65$902.84
Multi-Stage$517.64 - $563.28$540.05
Blended Fair Value$721.45
Current Price$600.08
Upside20.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS104.68%44.58%26.2721.5017.2319.380.890.730.710.600.620.64
YoY Growth--22.20%24.81%-11.11%2,084.03%21.32%3.71%17.87%-3.71%-2.21%-3.46%
Dividend Yield--7.23%4.95%5.77%6.38%0.90%2.58%1.03%0.82%1.12%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)580.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)413.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)167.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)116.1772.6143.56
Cash Retained (M)167.44167.44167.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-116.17-72.61-43.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.2694.83123.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.7515.7515.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.256.027.86
LTM Dividend per Share26.2526.2526.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.256.027.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend29.5032.2734.11
WACC / Discount Rate10.31%10.31%10.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$647.58$902.84$1,306.65
Upside / Downside7.92%50.45%117.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)580.86618.61658.82701.65747.26795.83819.70
Payout Ratio71.17%74.94%78.70%82.47%86.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)413.42463.59518.53578.65644.39716.24758.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.31%10.31%10.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)416.33420.27424.22
Year 2 PV (M)418.19426.15434.20
Year 3 PV (M)419.10431.13443.39
Year 4 PV (M)419.14435.26451.84
Year 5 PV (M)418.38438.59459.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,061.636,354.416,658.40
Equity Value (M)8,152.768,505.818,871.60
Shares Outstanding (M)15.7515.7515.75
Fair Value$517.64$540.05$563.28
Upside / Downside-13.74%-10.00%-6.13%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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