Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dynasty Ceramic Public Company Limited (DCC-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.77 - $1.11$0.94
Multi-Stage$1.99 - $2.19$2.08
Blended Fair Value$1.51
Current Price$1.38
Upside9.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.26%-5.88%0.070.060.160.180.130.080.080.100.130.12
YoY Growth--28.44%-65.00%-10.88%37.99%61.33%0.66%-20.57%-21.78%10.97%-11.90%
Dividend Yield--5.01%2.91%6.92%6.05%4.95%6.04%3.66%3.40%3.05%2.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,006.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)818.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)188.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)201.37125.8675.51
Cash Retained (M)188.71188.71188.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-201.37-125.86-75.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)-12.6662.85113.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,090.589,090.589,090.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-4.26%-3.26%-2.26%
Fair Value$0.77$0.94$1.11
Upside / Downside-44.12%-32.07%-19.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,006.86974.01942.24911.50881.76852.99878.58
Payout Ratio81.26%83.01%84.75%86.50%88.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)818.15808.49798.59788.47778.16767.69812.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-4.26%-3.26%-2.26%
Year 1 PV (M)749.62757.45765.28
Year 2 PV (M)686.53700.95715.51
Year 3 PV (M)628.48648.38668.69
Year 4 PV (M)575.10599.51624.68
Year 5 PV (M)526.05554.10583.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,897.6615,692.1316,520.14
Equity Value (M)18,063.4318,952.5119,877.65
Shares Outstanding (M)9,090.589,090.589,090.58
Fair Value$1.99$2.08$2.19
Upside / Downside43.99%51.08%58.45%

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