Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Calavo Growers, Inc. (CVGW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.77 - $4.94$4.39
Multi-Stage$11.01 - $12.19$11.59
Blended Fair Value$7.99
Current Price$26.30
Upside-69.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.68%-2.08%0.500.581.141.141.080.980.930.880.780.73
YoY Growth---14.49%-48.68%-0.06%5.11%10.17%5.47%6.12%12.86%7.22%17.86%
Dividend Yield--2.18%2.24%3.55%2.75%1.40%1.28%1.15%1.01%1.41%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.982.481.49
Cash Retained (M)5.585.585.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.98-2.48-1.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.613.104.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.8717.8717.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.170.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.170.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate-13.17%-12.17%-11.17%
Fair Value$3.77$4.39$4.94
Upside / Downside-85.66%-83.32%-81.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.8817.4615.3413.4711.8310.3910.70
Payout Ratio71.92%75.54%79.15%82.77%86.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.3013.1912.1411.1510.229.359.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate-13.17%-12.17%-11.17%
Year 1 PV (M)12.1512.2912.43
Year 2 PV (M)10.3010.5410.78
Year 3 PV (M)8.729.029.33
Year 4 PV (M)7.367.708.06
Year 5 PV (M)6.206.576.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)152.02160.98170.35
Equity Value (M)196.75207.10217.91
Shares Outstanding (M)17.8717.8717.87
Fair Value$11.01$11.59$12.19
Upside / Downside-58.14%-55.94%-53.64%

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