Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Healthcare FacilitiesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.27 - $268.45$122.77
Multi-Stage$31.58 - $34.45$32.99
Blended Fair Value$77.88
Current Price$34.68
Upside124.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.39%17.96%0.890.600.550.520.480.420.330.270.190.11
YoY Growth--49.07%8.81%5.31%8.18%15.56%27.97%19.80%41.10%71.04%-33.97%
Dividend Yield--3.11%2.46%2.80%2.70%2.07%2.82%1.39%2.03%1.14%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)261.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)234.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.2832.6719.60
Cash Retained (M)27.1227.1227.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.28-32.67-19.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)-25.16-5.557.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)193.64193.64193.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share1.211.211.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.52%7.52%7.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.27$122.77$268.45
Upside / Downside62.26%254.02%674.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)261.38278.37296.47315.74336.26358.12368.86
Payout Ratio89.62%89.70%89.77%89.85%89.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)234.26249.70266.15283.69302.38322.31341.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.52%7.52%7.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)230.04232.23234.41
Year 2 PV (M)225.90230.21234.55
Year 3 PV (M)221.83228.20234.69
Year 4 PV (M)217.84226.22234.83
Year 5 PV (M)213.92224.25234.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,004.985,246.735,497.72
Equity Value (M)6,114.526,387.826,671.18
Shares Outstanding (M)193.64193.64193.64
Fair Value$31.58$32.99$34.45
Upside / Downside-8.95%-4.88%-0.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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