Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.69 - $63.88$22.71
Multi-Stage$10.48 - $11.46$10.96
Blended Fair Value$16.83
Current Price$3.84
Upside338.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.20%8.21%0.250.250.200.180.190.180.190.180.150.13
YoY Growth---1.58%27.94%7.06%-2.12%2.36%-6.35%7.60%22.16%14.63%15.51%
Dividend Yield--6.42%7.85%5.42%4.85%4.92%5.45%4.44%4.32%3.64%2.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)231.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)217.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.2028.8817.33
Cash Retained (M)13.5013.5013.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.20-28.88-17.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)-32.70-15.38-3.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)581.21581.21581.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate4.20%5.20%6.20%
Fair Value$12.69$22.71$63.88
Upside / Downside230.41%491.31%1,563.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)231.00243.00255.63268.91282.88297.58306.50
Payout Ratio94.16%93.32%92.49%91.66%90.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)217.50226.78236.44246.49256.94267.82283.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate4.20%5.20%6.20%
Year 1 PV (M)210.31212.33214.35
Year 2 PV (M)203.34207.26211.22
Year 3 PV (M)196.59202.30208.13
Year 4 PV (M)190.04197.44205.06
Year 5 PV (M)183.70192.69202.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,108.595,358.495,618.07
Equity Value (M)6,092.576,370.516,658.84
Shares Outstanding (M)581.21581.21581.21
Fair Value$10.48$10.96$11.46
Upside / Downside172.98%185.43%198.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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