Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cowen Inc. (COWN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.15 - $21.96$18.46
Multi-Stage$25.47 - $27.98$26.70
Blended Fair Value$22.58
Current Price$38.62
Upside-41.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%0.690.570.390.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.80%45.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.79%2.11%1.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.178.234.94
Cash Retained (M)43.9143.9143.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.17-8.23-4.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.7435.6838.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)31.7431.7431.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.121.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.690.690.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.121.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.821.92
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.15$18.46$21.96
Upside / Downside-60.78%-52.21%-43.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.8665.2064.5463.9063.2662.6364.51
Payout Ratio33.32%44.66%55.99%67.33%78.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.9429.1236.1443.0249.7656.3659.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)26.5026.7827.05
Year 2 PV (M)29.9530.5731.19
Year 3 PV (M)32.4633.4634.49
Year 4 PV (M)34.1835.5937.05
Year 5 PV (M)35.2437.0838.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)650.20684.06719.31
Equity Value (M)808.53847.53888.07
Shares Outstanding (M)31.7431.7431.74
Fair Value$25.47$26.70$27.98
Upside / Downside-34.05%-30.86%-27.56%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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