Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.64 - $44.91$36.83
Multi-Stage$42.62 - $46.71$44.62
Blended Fair Value$40.72
Current Price$52.30
Upside-22.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.38%5.76%1.251.321.341.230.311.171.120.910.860.78
YoY Growth---5.05%-2.19%9.41%299.09%-73.60%3.93%23.09%5.79%10.51%9.32%
Dividend Yield--1.65%1.62%1.49%1.36%0.29%1.67%1.07%1.19%1.47%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)186.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)120.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.3223.3314.00
Cash Retained (M)120.28120.28120.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.32-23.33-14.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.9696.95106.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.8555.8555.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.491.741.90
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.491.741.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.672.923.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate0.06%1.06%2.06%
Fair Value$29.64$36.83$44.91
Upside / Downside-43.32%-29.59%-14.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)186.61188.59190.58192.60194.63196.69202.59
Payout Ratio35.55%46.44%57.33%68.22%79.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.3387.57109.25131.39153.97177.02187.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate0.06%1.06%2.06%
Year 1 PV (M)79.4980.2881.08
Year 2 PV (M)90.0191.8293.65
Year 3 PV (M)98.25101.23104.26
Year 4 PV (M)104.51108.75113.12
Year 5 PV (M)109.06114.62120.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,898.561,995.352,096.05
Equity Value (M)2,379.892,492.062,608.57
Shares Outstanding (M)55.8555.8555.85
Fair Value$42.62$44.62$46.71
Upside / Downside-18.52%-14.68%-10.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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