Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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CMS Energy Corporation 5.875% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2079 (CMSD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.71 - $352.91$162.71
Multi-Stage$94.07 - $103.01$98.45
Blended Fair Value$130.58
Current Price$24.14
Upside440.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.50%7.89%2.091.941.831.701.561.461.361.261.161.08
YoY Growth--8.12%6.04%7.27%8.99%7.11%7.13%7.96%8.65%7.76%9.90%
Dividend Yield--9.17%7.81%7.51%6.62%5.75%5.77%5.28%5.03%4.63%4.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,047.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)652.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)395.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)209.40130.8878.53
Cash Retained (M)395.00395.00395.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-209.40-130.88-78.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)185.60264.13316.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)299.13299.13299.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.881.06
LTM Dividend per Share2.182.182.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.881.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.803.063.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate3.59%4.59%5.59%
Fair Value$97.71$162.71$352.91
Upside / Downside304.75%574.02%1,361.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,047.001,095.031,145.271,197.811,252.761,310.231,349.54
Payout Ratio62.27%67.82%73.36%78.91%84.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)652.00742.63840.21945.181,058.011,179.211,248.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate3.59%4.59%5.59%
Year 1 PV (M)690.28696.94703.60
Year 2 PV (M)725.92740.00754.22
Year 3 PV (M)759.03781.23803.85
Year 4 PV (M)789.74820.68852.52
Year 5 PV (M)818.15858.41900.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,354.3825,552.8426,798.03
Equity Value (M)28,137.5029,450.1030,812.46
Shares Outstanding (M)299.13299.13299.13
Fair Value$94.07$98.45$103.01
Upside / Downside289.67%307.85%326.71%

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