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Definitive Analysis

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CMS Energy Corporation 5.875% J (CMSC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$270.53 - $696.10$652.35
Multi-Stage$101.55 - $111.05$106.21
Blended Fair Value$379.28
Current Price$23.78
Upside1,494.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.50%7.89%2.091.941.831.701.561.461.361.261.161.08
YoY Growth--8.12%6.04%7.27%8.99%7.11%7.13%7.96%8.65%7.76%9.90%
Dividend Yield--9.34%7.94%7.56%6.59%5.65%5.78%5.18%5.06%4.66%4.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,047.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)652.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)395.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)209.40130.8878.53
Cash Retained (M)395.00395.00395.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-209.40-130.88-78.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)185.60264.13316.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)299.13299.13299.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.881.06
LTM Dividend per Share2.182.182.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.881.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.803.063.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$270.53$652.35$696.10
Upside / Downside1,037.65%2,643.28%2,827.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,047.001,115.061,187.531,264.721,346.931,434.481,477.52
Payout Ratio62.27%67.82%73.36%78.91%84.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)652.00756.21871.22997.981,137.551,291.031,366.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)702.79709.45716.11
Year 2 PV (M)752.46766.79781.26
Year 3 PV (M)801.05824.04847.47
Year 4 PV (M)848.56881.19914.76
Year 5 PV (M)895.01938.24983.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,377.3327,651.3728,974.16
Equity Value (M)30,377.2031,771.0833,216.89
Shares Outstanding (M)299.13299.13299.13
Fair Value$101.55$106.21$111.05
Upside / Downside327.05%346.65%366.98%

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