Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk (CMRY.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,937.51 - $2,856.14$2,378.15
Multi-Stage$3,608.64 - $3,960.33$3,781.08
Blended Fair Value$3,079.62
Current Price$4,600.00
Upside-33.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%90.0070.0063.0250.410.000.006.300.000.000.00
YoY Growth--28.58%11.08%25.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.41%1.36%1.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,964,558.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,190,307.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)774,251.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)392,911.60245,569.75147,341.85
Cash Retained (M)774,251.00774,251.00774,251.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-392,911.60-245,569.75-147,341.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)381,339.40528,681.25626,909.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,934.687,934.687,934.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.0666.6379.01
LTM Dividend per Share150.01150.01150.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.0666.6379.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend198.07216.64229.02
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,937.51$2,378.15$2,856.14
Upside / Downside-57.88%-48.30%-37.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,964,558.001,944,912.421,925,463.301,906,208.661,887,146.581,868,275.111,924,323.36
Payout Ratio60.59%66.47%72.35%78.24%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,190,307.001,292,807.381,393,138.721,491,334.151,587,426.371,681,447.601,779,999.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,184,748.611,196,837.881,208,927.16
Year 2 PV (M)1,169,981.881,193,980.881,218,223.53
Year 3 PV (M)1,147,762.741,183,258.081,219,477.79
Year 4 PV (M)1,119,600.631,166,002.841,213,832.70
Year 5 PV (M)1,086,789.091,143,380.721,202,305.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,924,517.0524,118,249.8425,361,201.04
Equity Value (M)28,633,400.0030,001,710.2531,423,967.87
Shares Outstanding (M)7,934.687,934.687,934.68
Fair Value$3,608.64$3,781.08$3,960.33
Upside / Downside-21.55%-17.80%-13.91%

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