Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Colony Capital, Inc. (CLNY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.92 - $35.02$29.94
Multi-Stage$35.58 - $39.08$37.30
Blended Fair Value$33.62
Current Price$8.50
Upside295.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202020192018201720162015201420132012
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001.071.862.493.541.331.180.900.640.33
YoY Growth---100.00%-42.41%-25.17%-29.58%166.76%12.63%31.22%39.50%92.98%75.39%
Dividend Yield--0.00%16.57%106.54%45.22%54.43%20.40%18.11%13.81%9.90%5.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)686.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)594.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)137.3085.8151.49
Cash Retained (M)594.34594.34594.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-137.30-85.81-51.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)457.04508.52542.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)173.09173.09173.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.642.943.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.642.943.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.173.473.67
WACC / Discount Rate10.48%10.48%10.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$24.92$29.94$35.02
Upside / Downside193.20%252.19%311.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)686.50679.63672.84666.11659.45652.85672.44
Payout Ratio13.43%28.74%44.06%59.37%74.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92.16195.33296.42395.47492.51587.57622.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.48%10.48%10.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)175.02176.80178.59
Year 2 PV (M)237.98242.86247.80
Year 3 PV (M)284.49293.29302.27
Year 4 PV (M)317.46330.62344.18
Year 5 PV (M)339.36357.03375.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,804.865,055.065,315.57
Equity Value (M)6,159.176,455.676,763.84
Shares Outstanding (M)173.09173.09173.09
Fair Value$35.58$37.30$39.08
Upside / Downside318.64%338.79%359.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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