Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited (CK-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.55 - $86.70$45.43
Multi-Stage$98.59 - $108.80$103.59
Blended Fair Value$74.51
Current Price$11.30
Upside559.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.71%-2.78%0.300.250.390.200.200.500.450.500.650.60
YoY Growth--20.73%-36.53%100.01%-2.13%-60.00%11.15%-10.00%-23.11%8.33%50.82%
Dividend Yield--2.18%1.08%1.90%0.97%1.12%3.28%1.79%2.08%2.40%2.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,981.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)506.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,475.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)396.36247.73148.64
Cash Retained (M)1,475.341,475.341,475.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-396.36-247.73-148.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,078.981,227.621,326.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,686.731,686.731,686.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.730.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.730.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.09
WACC / Discount Rate2.58%2.58%2.58%
Growth Rate-0.69%0.31%1.31%
Fair Value$28.55$45.43$86.70
Upside / Downside152.63%302.05%667.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,981.821,988.001,994.192,000.392,006.622,012.872,073.26
Payout Ratio25.56%38.45%51.33%64.22%77.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)506.48764.291,023.691,284.701,547.331,811.581,917.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.58%2.58%2.58%
Growth Rate-0.69%0.31%1.31%
Year 1 PV (M)737.63745.05752.48
Year 2 PV (M)953.52972.82992.31
Year 3 PV (M)1,154.901,190.141,226.09
Year 4 PV (M)1,342.471,397.371,453.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,516.911,594.841,675.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)160,582.20168,831.44177,416.28
Equity Value (M)166,287.63174,731.66183,517.02
Shares Outstanding (M)1,686.731,686.731,686.73
Fair Value$98.59$103.59$108.80
Upside / Downside772.44%816.74%862.84%

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