Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Charter Hall Group (CHC.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.67 - $114.56$55.23
Multi-Stage$22.67 - $24.75$23.69
Blended Fair Value$39.46
Current Price$19.19
Upside105.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.32%10.31%0.460.430.410.380.360.340.320.300.240.22
YoY Growth--5.99%5.99%7.66%5.95%6.00%3.99%6.37%26.43%11.50%25.96%
Dividend Yield--2.38%3.83%3.80%3.49%2.30%3.47%2.95%4.67%4.38%4.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)586.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)315.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)270.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)117.3473.3444.00
Cash Retained (M)270.90270.90270.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-117.34-73.34-44.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)153.56197.56226.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)480.17480.17480.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.410.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.410.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate5.41%6.41%7.41%
Fair Value$33.67$55.23$114.56
Upside / Downside75.48%187.82%496.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)586.70624.29664.28706.84752.13800.32824.33
Payout Ratio53.83%61.06%68.30%75.53%82.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)315.80381.20453.68533.88622.50720.29762.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate5.41%6.41%7.41%
Year 1 PV (M)348.14351.44354.75
Year 2 PV (M)378.40385.62392.90
Year 3 PV (M)406.68418.37430.28
Year 4 PV (M)433.07449.74466.88
Year 5 PV (M)457.64479.76502.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,862.289,290.729,735.57
Equity Value (M)10,886.2111,375.6511,883.10
Shares Outstanding (M)480.17480.17480.17
Fair Value$22.67$23.69$24.75
Upside / Downside18.14%23.45%28.96%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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