Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.03 - $226.60$82.45
Multi-Stage$24.41 - $26.67$25.52
Blended Fair Value$53.98
Current Price$12.50
Upside331.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-58.69%-19.90%0.021.430.000.001.491.651.441.170.940.55
YoY Growth---98.61%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-9.85%14.78%22.69%24.25%72.15%199.95%
Dividend Yield--0.12%8.90%0.00%0.00%11.27%31.61%9.79%6.55%5.21%3.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.799.245.55
Cash Retained (M)33.2233.2233.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.79-9.24-5.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.4323.9727.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.9064.9064.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.370.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.370.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.03$82.45$226.60
Upside / Downside236.26%559.57%1,712.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.9478.7583.8789.3295.13101.31104.35
Payout Ratio55.08%62.06%69.05%76.03%83.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.7348.8757.9167.9178.9791.1896.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44.9245.3445.77
Year 2 PV (M)48.9149.8450.78
Year 3 PV (M)52.7254.2355.77
Year 4 PV (M)56.3458.5060.73
Year 5 PV (M)59.7862.6765.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,321.771,385.621,451.90
Equity Value (M)1,584.441,656.211,730.63
Shares Outstanding (M)64.9064.9064.90
Fair Value$24.41$25.52$26.67
Upside / Downside95.31%104.16%113.33%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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