Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Central Securities Corp. (CET)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$240.42 - $425.03$318.60
Multi-Stage$297.66 - $326.58$311.85
Blended Fair Value$315.23
Current Price$47.86
Upside558.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.86%3.97%1.321.071.342.020.940.760.800.560.561.02
YoY Growth--23.15%-20.06%-33.41%113.89%24.89%-6.11%43.14%0.82%-45.21%13.56%
Dividend Yield--2.89%2.84%4.02%4.53%2.89%2.28%3.24%2.05%2.56%5.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)507.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)436.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)101.4063.3838.03
Cash Retained (M)436.69436.69436.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-101.40-63.38-38.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)335.29373.32398.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.6628.6628.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.7013.0313.91
LTM Dividend per Share2.452.452.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.7013.0313.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.1515.4816.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate1.97%2.97%3.97%
Fair Value$240.42$318.60$425.03
Upside / Downside402.33%565.70%788.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)507.00522.08537.60553.58570.04586.99604.60
Payout Ratio13.87%29.09%44.32%59.55%74.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.31151.89238.27329.64426.24528.30559.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate1.97%2.97%3.97%
Year 1 PV (M)139.30140.67142.04
Year 2 PV (M)200.41204.36208.35
Year 3 PV (M)254.29261.85269.55
Year 4 PV (M)301.56313.57325.93
Year 5 PV (M)342.79359.93377.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,291.377,655.978,035.00
Equity Value (M)8,529.748,936.359,358.62
Shares Outstanding (M)28.6628.6628.66
Fair Value$297.66$311.85$326.58
Upside / Downside521.93%551.58%582.37%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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