Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Compañía Cervecerías Unidas S.A. (CCU.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12,314.94 - $72,267.02$22,727.58
Multi-Stage$10,389.02 - $11,373.88$10,872.32
Blended Fair Value$16,799.95
Current Price$6,050.50
Upside177.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.81%2.28%221.37177.49428.47741.91276.41590.08202.50203.32188.96179.02
YoY Growth--24.72%-58.58%-42.25%168.40%-53.16%191.39%-0.40%7.60%5.55%1.27%
Dividend Yield--3.07%3.04%7.00%12.60%4.38%10.05%2.08%2.31%2.27%2.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136,209.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88,216.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)47,993.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27,241.8417,026.1510,215.69
Cash Retained (M)47,993.2047,993.2047,993.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-27,241.84-17,026.15-10,215.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)20,751.3630,967.0537,777.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)369.50369.50369.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share56.1683.81102.24
LTM Dividend per Share238.74238.74238.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share56.1683.81102.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend294.90322.55340.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate3.97%4.97%5.97%
Fair Value$12,314.94$22,727.58$72,267.02
Upside / Downside103.54%275.63%1,094.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136,209.20142,977.80150,082.75157,540.77165,369.40173,587.05178,794.66
Payout Ratio64.77%69.81%74.86%79.91%84.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88,216.0099,815.75112,350.52125,884.58140,486.29156,228.34165,385.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate3.97%4.97%5.97%
Year 1 PV (M)92,866.6093,759.8194,653.03
Year 2 PV (M)97,251.4399,131.20101,028.97
Year 3 PV (M)101,380.38104,333.91107,344.24
Year 4 PV (M)105,263.01109,371.59113,599.28
Year 5 PV (M)108,908.59114,247.86119,794.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,333,104.333,496,510.363,666,263.26
Equity Value (M)3,838,774.354,017,354.734,202,683.29
Shares Outstanding (M)369.50369.50369.50
Fair Value$10,389.02$10,872.32$11,373.88
Upside / Downside71.71%79.69%87.98%

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