Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. (CBL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.61 - $22.15$19.47
Multi-Stage$37.54 - $41.37$39.41
Blended Fair Value$29.44
Current Price$25.39
Upside15.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.17%-13.38%1.633.820.770.000.000.845.917.317.307.29
YoY Growth---57.36%394.67%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-85.79%-19.22%0.14%0.13%6.55%
Dividend Yield--6.12%16.85%3.01%0.00%0.00%2.80%19.69%24.37%24.34%24.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)123.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.7615.479.28
Cash Retained (M)48.1248.1248.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.76-15.47-9.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.3632.6438.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.9330.9330.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.761.061.26
LTM Dividend per Share2.452.452.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.761.061.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.203.503.70
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate-8.96%-7.96%-6.96%
Fair Value$16.61$19.47$22.15
Upside / Downside-34.59%-23.31%-12.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)123.79113.94104.8796.5288.8481.7684.22
Payout Ratio61.13%66.90%72.68%78.45%84.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.6776.2376.2275.7274.8273.5977.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate-8.96%-7.96%-6.96%
Year 1 PV (M)69.4470.2070.96
Year 2 PV (M)63.2464.6366.04
Year 3 PV (M)57.2359.1361.08
Year 4 PV (M)51.5153.8156.19
Year 5 PV (M)46.1448.7351.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)873.55922.60973.82
Equity Value (M)1,161.101,219.101,279.53
Shares Outstanding (M)30.9330.9330.93
Fair Value$37.54$39.41$41.37
Upside / Downside47.84%55.23%62.92%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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