Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,747.18 - $5,177.41$4,851.99
Multi-Stage$705.72 - $772.38$738.44
Blended Fair Value$2,795.21
Current Price$115.64
Upside2,317.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%21.05%6.771.885.170.130.030.000.860.000.002.48
YoY Growth--259.57%-63.59%4,024.44%270.28%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%147.27%
Dividend Yield--5.86%2.61%10.85%0.23%0.09%0.00%2.11%0.00%0.00%5.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,269.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)406.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)862.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)253.88158.6895.21
Cash Retained (M)862.72862.72862.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-253.88-158.68-95.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)608.83704.04767.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.7648.7648.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.4914.4415.74
LTM Dividend per Share8.348.348.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.4914.4415.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend20.8322.7824.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,747.18$4,851.99$5,177.41
Upside / Downside1,410.88%4,095.77%4,377.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,269.411,351.921,439.801,533.391,633.061,739.201,791.38
Payout Ratio32.04%43.63%55.22%66.82%78.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)406.70589.85795.101,024.541,280.441,565.281,657.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)547.33552.51557.70
Year 2 PV (M)684.59697.63710.79
Year 3 PV (M)818.54842.04865.98
Year 4 PV (M)949.24985.741,023.29
Year 5 PV (M)1,076.751,128.751,182.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,334.8231,800.0133,321.27
Equity Value (M)34,411.2636,006.6837,661.78
Shares Outstanding (M)48.7648.7648.76
Fair Value$705.72$738.44$772.38
Upside / Downside510.27%538.56%567.92%

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