Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.70 - $89.07$65.41
Multi-Stage$47.20 - $51.59$49.35
Blended Fair Value$57.38
Current Price$54.64
Upside5.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.67%5.75%1.091.090.870.010.321.251.151.020.870.74
YoY Growth---0.31%25.87%12,443.62%-97.87%-73.99%7.95%12.75%17.74%17.80%18.58%
Dividend Yield--2.14%2.96%2.51%0.02%0.54%7.29%2.39%2.11%1.37%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)160.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.1620.1012.06
Cash Retained (M)108.16108.16108.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.16-20.10-12.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.0088.0696.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.7448.7448.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.561.811.97
LTM Dividend per Share1.081.081.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.561.811.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.642.893.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate3.75%4.75%5.75%
Fair Value$48.70$65.41$89.07
Upside / Downside-10.88%19.71%63.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)160.81168.44176.44184.81193.59202.78208.86
Payout Ratio32.74%44.19%55.64%67.10%78.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.6574.4498.18124.00152.06182.50193.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate3.75%4.75%5.75%
Year 1 PV (M)67.4168.0668.71
Year 2 PV (M)80.5182.0783.65
Year 3 PV (M)92.0994.7897.52
Year 4 PV (M)102.27106.27110.39
Year 5 PV (M)111.16116.62122.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,847.141,937.902,032.18
Equity Value (M)2,300.592,405.702,514.75
Shares Outstanding (M)48.7448.7448.74
Fair Value$47.20$49.35$51.59
Upside / Downside-13.62%-9.67%-5.58%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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