Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. (BWFG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$120.31 - $600.82$214.95
Multi-Stage$72.20 - $78.96$75.52
Blended Fair Value$145.24
Current Price$44.25
Upside228.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.02%0.00%0.810.800.800.650.560.520.480.280.210.05
YoY Growth--0.67%0.84%23.16%14.49%7.60%8.51%74.92%29.38%341.76%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.68%3.18%3.20%1.91%2.09%3.44%1.66%0.86%0.62%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.803.632.18
Cash Retained (M)22.7522.7522.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.80-3.63-2.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.9519.1220.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.787.787.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.182.462.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.182.462.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.983.263.45
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$120.31$214.95$600.82
Upside / Downside171.88%385.77%1,257.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.0230.9032.9135.0537.3339.7640.95
Payout Ratio21.59%35.28%48.96%62.64%76.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.2710.9016.1121.9628.4935.7837.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9.9910.0810.18
Year 2 PV (M)13.5313.7814.04
Year 3 PV (M)16.8917.3717.87
Year 4 PV (M)20.0820.8521.64
Year 5 PV (M)23.1024.2225.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)477.92501.00524.97
Equity Value (M)561.50587.31614.08
Shares Outstanding (M)7.787.787.78
Fair Value$72.20$75.52$78.96
Upside / Downside63.16%70.66%78.44%

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