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Definitive Analysis

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First Busey Corporation (BUSE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.86 - $94.31$53.63
Multi-Stage$27.07 - $29.53$28.28
Blended Fair Value$40.95
Current Price$23.15
Upside76.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.70%12.14%0.780.760.730.730.690.650.560.440.330.27
YoY Growth--2.06%4.35%0.20%5.73%6.29%15.79%27.04%34.99%22.18%8.10%
Dividend Yield--3.59%3.24%3.58%2.87%2.68%3.78%2.25%1.48%1.11%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.5212.837.70
Cash Retained (M)24.7124.7124.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.52-12.83-7.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.1911.8817.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)69.7769.7769.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.170.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.121.121.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.170.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate4.99%5.99%6.99%
Fair Value$34.86$53.63$94.31
Upside / Downside50.60%131.67%307.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.62108.76115.27122.17129.49137.24141.36
Payout Ratio75.92%78.74%81.55%84.37%87.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.9185.6394.01103.08112.89123.52130.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate4.99%5.99%6.99%
Year 1 PV (M)78.1678.9079.65
Year 2 PV (M)78.3179.8181.32
Year 3 PV (M)78.3780.6382.93
Year 4 PV (M)78.3481.3784.48
Year 5 PV (M)78.2382.0385.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,497.441,570.131,645.61
Equity Value (M)1,888.861,972.872,059.98
Shares Outstanding (M)69.7769.7769.77
Fair Value$27.07$28.28$29.53
Upside / Downside16.95%22.15%27.55%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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