Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,699.42 - $2,435.28$2,059.61
Multi-Stage$2,286.78 - $2,505.50$2,394.07
Blended Fair Value$2,226.84
Current Price$2,520.00
Upside-11.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%64.2578.2313.407.169.760.0053.9753.970.000.00
YoY Growth---17.88%483.92%87.19%-26.65%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.21%2.97%0.54%0.27%0.34%0.00%1.49%1.61%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,572,585.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)642,260.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,930,325.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)514,517.00321,573.13192,943.88
Cash Retained (M)1,930,325.001,930,325.001,930,325.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-514,517.00-321,573.13-192,943.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,415,808.001,608,751.881,737,381.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,645.9510,645.9510,645.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share132.99151.11163.20
LTM Dividend per Share60.3360.3360.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share132.99151.11163.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend193.32211.44223.53
WACC / Discount Rate10.70%10.70%10.70%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Fair Value$1,699.42$2,059.61$2,435.28
Upside / Downside-32.56%-18.27%-3.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,572,585.002,582,642.112,592,738.542,602,874.432,613,049.962,623,265.262,701,963.21
Payout Ratio24.97%37.97%50.98%63.99%76.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)642,260.00980,692.231,321,760.741,665,480.962,011,868.432,360,938.732,499,315.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.70%10.70%10.70%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)877,098.28885,923.02894,747.75
Year 2 PV (M)1,057,265.111,078,647.021,100,242.98
Year 3 PV (M)1,191,478.621,227,805.071,264,862.48
Year 4 PV (M)1,287,246.391,339,838.881,394,026.70
Year 5 PV (M)1,351,021.791,420,368.291,492,533.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,580,799.2519,534,531.7820,527,031.60
Equity Value (M)24,344,909.4525,487,114.0526,673,445.09
Shares Outstanding (M)10,645.9510,645.9510,645.95
Fair Value$2,286.78$2,394.07$2,505.50
Upside / Downside-9.25%-5.00%-0.58%

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