Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.94 - $15.21$12.40
Multi-Stage$15.65 - $17.12$16.37
Blended Fair Value$14.39
Current Price$27.68
Upside-48.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.22%6.70%1.081.030.940.840.561.091.091.030.960.87
YoY Growth--5.05%8.86%12.60%50.96%-49.12%0.45%5.05%7.51%10.04%54.94%
Dividend Yield--4.07%4.53%4.39%3.25%2.75%11.49%5.93%6.78%4.48%3.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)332.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)260.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.5041.5624.94
Cash Retained (M)72.1772.1772.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.50-41.56-24.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.6730.6147.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)306.75306.75306.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.00
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Fair Value$9.94$12.40$15.21
Upside / Downside-64.10%-55.20%-45.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)332.51335.58338.68341.81344.97348.16358.60
Payout Ratio78.30%80.64%82.98%85.32%87.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)260.34270.60281.03291.63302.40313.34331.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)246.60249.07251.54
Year 2 PV (M)233.39238.09242.83
Year 3 PV (M)220.72227.41234.24
Year 4 PV (M)208.57217.05225.78
Year 5 PV (M)196.96207.01217.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,694.353,882.944,079.16
Equity Value (M)4,800.595,021.575,251.02
Shares Outstanding (M)306.75306.75306.75
Fair Value$15.65$16.37$17.12
Upside / Downside-43.46%-40.86%-38.16%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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