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BNP Paribas S.A. (BNP.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$709.92 - $3,801.25$1,400.13
Multi-Stage$475.48 - $520.15$497.41
Blended Fair Value$948.77
Current Price$76.27
Upside1,143.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.30%13.23%5.154.684.253.930.373.463.503.001.590.56
YoY Growth--10.06%10.14%8.19%963.38%-89.32%-1.29%16.84%88.50%184.34%-62.39%
Dividend Yield--8.74%7.45%7.93%6.47%0.85%6.51%8.99%4.85%2.65%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,186.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,339.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,847.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,437.202,773.251,663.95
Cash Retained (M)10,847.0010,847.0010,847.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,437.20-2,773.25-1,663.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,409.808,073.759,183.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.741,152.741,152.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.567.007.97
LTM Dividend per Share9.849.849.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.567.007.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.4016.8417.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate4.76%5.76%6.76%
Fair Value$709.92$1,400.13$3,801.25
Upside / Downside830.80%1,735.76%4,883.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,186.0023,463.7824,815.1526,244.3527,755.8629,354.4330,235.06
Payout Ratio51.11%58.89%66.67%74.44%82.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,339.0013,817.1316,543.0919,537.2222,821.3626,418.9827,967.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate4.76%5.76%6.76%
Year 1 PV (M)12,787.3412,909.4113,031.47
Year 2 PV (M)14,169.0914,440.8914,715.27
Year 3 PV (M)15,486.4115,934.1416,390.42
Year 4 PV (M)16,741.4117,389.8518,056.96
Year 5 PV (M)17,936.1518,808.7219,714.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)470,983.04493,895.59517,691.32
Equity Value (M)548,103.44573,378.59599,600.34
Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.741,152.741,152.74
Fair Value$475.48$497.41$520.15
Upside / Downside523.42%552.16%581.99%

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