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Definitive Analysis

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PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30,346.37 - $109,727.12$96,191.42
Multi-Stage$14,440.77 - $15,769.24$15,092.95
Blended Fair Value$55,642.19
Current Price$4,400.00
Upside1,164.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.03%19.72%353.96264.67180.18110.05177.49120.6199.5166.5765.3653.23
YoY Growth--33.74%46.89%63.72%-38.00%47.17%21.20%49.49%1.84%22.80%-9.03%
Dividend Yield--6.81%3.84%3.49%2.79%5.77%5.15%2.68%1.73%2.23%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51,495,530.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43,510,539.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,984,991.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,299,106.006,436,941.253,862,164.75
Cash Retained (M)7,984,991.007,984,991.007,984,991.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,299,106.00-6,436,941.25-3,862,164.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,314,115.001,548,049.754,122,826.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93,333.1193,333.1193,333.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share-24.7916.5944.17
LTM Dividend per Share466.19466.19466.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share-24.7916.5944.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend441.39482.77510.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30,346.37$96,191.42$109,727.12
Upside / Downside589.69%2,086.17%2,393.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51,495,530.0054,842,739.4558,407,517.5162,204,006.1566,247,266.5570,553,338.8872,669,939.04
Payout Ratio84.49%85.60%86.70%87.80%88.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43,510,539.0046,942,672.3350,637,150.9654,613,579.0358,893,000.7863,498,004.9967,219,693.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43,445,704.0443,857,511.6644,269,319.28
Year 2 PV (M)43,373,785.0544,199,933.8345,033,876.46
Year 3 PV (M)43,294,998.4844,537,842.3045,804,246.44
Year 4 PV (M)43,209,556.0344,871,273.6146,580,465.31
Year 5 PV (M)43,117,664.7345,200,264.0647,362,569.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,131,360,405.411,186,005,536.031,242,742,064.41
Equity Value (M)1,347,802,113.751,408,672,361.491,471,792,541.28
Shares Outstanding (M)93,333.1193,333.1193,333.11
Fair Value$14,440.77$15,092.95$15,769.24
Upside / Downside228.20%243.02%258.39%

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