Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Black Hills Corporation (BKH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$95.12 - $267.11$147.97
Multi-Stage$87.73 - $96.01$91.79
Blended Fair Value$119.88
Current Price$56.10
Upside113.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.90%10.10%2.532.332.172.011.881.731.481.341.211.01
YoY Growth--8.45%7.28%8.07%7.06%8.66%16.94%10.18%10.48%20.61%4.26%
Dividend Yield--4.16%4.33%3.44%2.61%2.81%2.70%2.02%2.47%1.83%1.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)284.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)144.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.9635.6021.36
Cash Retained (M)140.70140.70140.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.96-35.60-21.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.74105.10119.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.1872.1872.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.161.461.65
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.161.461.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.163.453.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate3.84%4.84%5.84%
Fair Value$95.12$147.97$267.11
Upside / Downside69.55%163.76%376.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)284.80298.58313.03328.17344.05360.70371.52
Payout Ratio50.60%58.48%66.36%74.24%82.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)144.10174.60207.72243.63282.53324.63343.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate3.84%4.84%5.84%
Year 1 PV (M)161.19162.75164.30
Year 2 PV (M)177.04180.47183.93
Year 3 PV (M)191.70197.30203.00
Year 4 PV (M)205.24213.26221.52
Year 5 PV (M)217.71228.40239.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,378.895,642.935,917.24
Equity Value (M)6,331.786,625.106,929.48
Shares Outstanding (M)72.1872.1872.18
Fair Value$87.73$91.79$96.01
Upside / Downside56.38%63.62%71.14%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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