Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Burke & Herbert Bank & Trust Company (BHRB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$323.65 - $1,412.01$777.00
Multi-Stage$164.84 - $180.31$172.43
Blended Fair Value$474.72
Current Price$61.69
Upside669.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS13.82%0.00%1.901.051.050.990.991.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--81.85%0.03%5.86%-0.23%-0.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.39%1.91%1.42%1.77%2.03%2.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.3713.368.01
Cash Retained (M)72.9772.9772.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.37-13.36-8.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.6059.6164.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.0515.0515.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.433.964.32
LTM Dividend per Share2.252.252.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.433.964.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.686.216.57
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$323.65$777.00$1,412.01
Upside / Downside424.63%1,159.52%2,188.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.86113.80121.20129.08137.47146.40150.79
Payout Ratio31.71%43.37%55.03%66.68%78.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.8949.3566.6986.07107.69131.76139.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)45.5445.9746.41
Year 2 PV (M)56.7957.8758.96
Year 3 PV (M)67.6369.5771.55
Year 4 PV (M)78.0981.0984.18
Year 5 PV (M)88.1692.4296.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,144.642,248.232,355.78
Equity Value (M)2,480.842,595.152,713.71
Shares Outstanding (M)15.0515.0515.05
Fair Value$164.84$172.43$180.31
Upside / Downside167.21%179.52%192.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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