Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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BGC Partners, Inc. (BGCP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.31 - $4.69$3.99
Multi-Stage$4.92 - $5.41$5.16
Blended Fair Value$4.57
Current Price$4.43
Upside3.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-35.64%-10.73%0.070.000.090.140.260.630.480.410.350.27
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-34.98%-45.55%-59.64%32.26%15.66%17.17%30.02%24.95%
Dividend Yield--1.58%0.00%1.73%3.16%5.29%25.10%8.66%4.78%4.83%4.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)241.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)213.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.3530.2218.13
Cash Retained (M)213.02213.02213.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.35-30.22-18.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)164.67182.80194.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)483.95483.95483.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.31$3.99$4.69
Upside / Downside-25.39%-9.96%5.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)241.75239.33236.94234.57232.22229.90236.79
Payout Ratio11.88%27.51%43.13%58.75%74.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.7365.83102.19137.81172.72206.91219.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)59.3259.9360.53
Year 2 PV (M)82.9884.6986.41
Year 3 PV (M)100.85103.97107.15
Year 4 PV (M)113.90118.62123.49
Year 5 PV (M)122.96129.36136.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,900.681,999.652,102.70
Equity Value (M)2,380.702,496.222,616.31
Shares Outstanding (M)483.95483.95483.95
Fair Value$4.92$5.16$5.41
Upside / Downside11.05%16.43%22.04%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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