Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-A)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.01 - $37.98$28.88
Multi-Stage$30.92 - $33.88$32.37
Blended Fair Value$30.63
Current Price$27.23
Upside12.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.26%5.08%0.890.850.801.760.710.690.661.630.580.56
YoY Growth--3.96%6.88%-54.51%145.86%4.00%4.84%-59.90%182.12%3.01%3.91%
Dividend Yield--3.08%1.89%1.13%2.35%1.01%0.99%1.20%3.07%1.47%1.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)810.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)428.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)382.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)162.00101.2560.75
Cash Retained (M)382.00382.00382.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-162.00-101.25-60.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)220.00280.75321.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)472.84472.84472.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.590.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.910.910.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.590.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.371.501.58
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate1.40%2.40%3.40%
Fair Value$22.01$28.88$37.98
Upside / Downside-19.17%6.08%39.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)810.00829.44849.35869.74890.62911.99939.35
Payout Ratio52.84%60.27%67.70%75.14%82.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)428.00499.92575.04653.49735.36820.80868.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate1.40%2.40%3.40%
Year 1 PV (M)459.58464.12468.65
Year 2 PV (M)485.99495.63505.35
Year 3 PV (M)507.73522.90538.37
Year 4 PV (M)525.24546.27567.92
Year 5 PV (M)538.96566.07594.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,102.5612,711.2113,344.12
Equity Value (M)14,620.0615,306.1916,018.66
Shares Outstanding (M)472.84472.84472.84
Fair Value$30.92$32.37$33.88
Upside / Downside13.55%18.88%24.41%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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