Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited (BCH-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.21 - $103.93$97.40
Multi-Stage$14.41 - $15.74$15.07
Blended Fair Value$56.23
Current Price$13.00
Upside332.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.96%11.03%0.370.511.410.330.230.220.230.180.140.12
YoY Growth---26.00%-64.29%324.98%43.23%4.55%-4.35%27.78%28.57%16.66%-7.69%
Dividend Yield--2.67%2.45%6.93%1.62%1.58%1.95%1.35%1.06%1.09%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,289.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,072.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)217.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)257.98161.2496.74
Cash Retained (M)217.60217.60217.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-257.98-161.24-96.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)-40.3856.37120.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,468.232,468.232,468.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.020.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.020.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.21$97.40$103.93
Upside / Downside155.46%649.23%699.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,289.901,373.751,463.041,558.141,659.421,767.281,820.30
Payout Ratio83.13%84.50%85.88%87.25%88.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,072.301,160.871,256.431,359.511,470.671,590.551,683.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,076.471,086.671,096.88
Year 2 PV (M)1,080.371,100.951,121.72
Year 3 PV (M)1,084.011,115.131,146.83
Year 4 PV (M)1,087.391,129.211,172.22
Year 5 PV (M)1,090.521,143.191,197.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,156.3731,612.9333,125.24
Equity Value (M)35,575.1237,188.0838,860.77
Shares Outstanding (M)2,468.232,468.232,468.23
Fair Value$14.41$15.07$15.74
Upside / Downside10.87%15.90%21.11%

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