Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BanksSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.55 - $109.68$61.30
Multi-Stage$42.82 - $46.95$44.85
Blended Fair Value$53.08
Current Price$4.38
Upside1,111.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.75%16.83%0.650.470.360.150.180.360.350.280.270.15
YoY Growth--39.35%28.51%135.96%-13.05%-50.40%1.90%24.09%6.19%81.91%6.42%
Dividend Yield--14.82%10.64%8.28%3.51%4.03%11.95%6.53%4.33%3.59%2.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,054.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,913.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,141.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,010.801,256.75754.05
Cash Retained (M)6,141.006,141.006,141.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,010.80-1,256.75-754.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,130.204,884.255,386.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,027.196,027.196,027.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.810.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.810.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.461.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate3.10%4.10%5.10%
Fair Value$39.55$61.30$109.68
Upside / Downside803.03%1,299.62%2,404.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,054.0010,466.2510,895.4111,342.1711,807.2412,291.3912,660.13
Payout Ratio38.92%49.14%59.35%69.57%79.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,913.005,142.686,466.637,890.519,420.2911,062.2511,710.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate3.10%4.10%5.10%
Year 1 PV (M)4,778.884,825.234,871.59
Year 2 PV (M)5,584.085,692.925,802.82
Year 3 PV (M)6,331.626,517.656,707.28
Year 4 PV (M)7,024.417,300.937,585.53
Year 5 PV (M)7,665.248,044.268,438.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)226,728.17237,939.05249,589.08
Equity Value (M)258,112.39270,320.04282,994.42
Shares Outstanding (M)6,027.196,027.196,027.19
Fair Value$42.82$44.85$46.95
Upside / Downside877.73%923.98%971.99%

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