Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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PT Bayu Buana Tbk (BAYU.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,205.49 - $5,197.61$4,100.04
Multi-Stage$6,156.72 - $6,762.29$6,453.66
Blended Fair Value$5,276.85
Current Price$1,320.00
Upside299.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%75.0050.0025.0025.0050.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--50.00%100.00%0.00%-50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.41%3.85%2.65%2.28%4.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104,442.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61,813.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)42,628.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20,888.5013,055.317,833.19
Cash Retained (M)42,628.8742,628.8742,628.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-20,888.50-13,055.31-7,833.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)21,740.3729,573.5534,795.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)353.22353.22353.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share61.5583.7398.51
LTM Dividend per Share175.00175.00175.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share61.5583.7398.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend236.55258.73273.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate-0.57%0.43%1.43%
Fair Value$3,205.49$4,100.04$5,197.61
Upside / Downside142.84%210.61%293.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104,442.50104,893.62105,346.69105,801.72106,258.71106,717.67109,919.20
Payout Ratio59.18%65.35%71.51%77.67%83.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61,813.6468,545.3575,334.0782,180.1689,083.9896,045.90101,675.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate-0.57%0.43%1.43%
Year 1 PV (M)63,560.1464,199.3764,838.61
Year 2 PV (M)64,774.6666,084.1067,406.65
Year 3 PV (M)65,522.0567,518.8969,555.89
Year 4 PV (M)65,860.7968,550.5171,321.79
Year 5 PV (M)65,843.5269,221.7772,737.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,849,120.401,943,993.842,042,722.10
Equity Value (M)2,174,681.552,279,568.492,388,582.33
Shares Outstanding (M)353.22353.22353.22
Fair Value$6,156.72$6,453.66$6,762.29
Upside / Downside366.42%388.91%412.29%

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