Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited (BAY-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.34 - $99.64$74.67
Multi-Stage$92.76 - $101.98$97.28
Blended Fair Value$85.98
Current Price$23.50
Upside265.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.19%2.65%0.860.860.860.750.450.850.870.860.810.84
YoY Growth--0.04%-0.03%14.40%66.67%-47.06%-1.80%0.52%6.16%-3.32%27.00%
Dividend Yield--3.78%3.18%2.96%2.13%1.20%4.47%2.32%2.14%2.11%2.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,887.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,365.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)24,522.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,177.553,860.972,316.58
Cash Retained (M)24,522.2724,522.2724,522.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,177.55-3,860.97-2,316.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)18,344.7220,661.3022,205.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,355.767,355.767,355.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.492.813.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.492.813.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.363.673.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate0.65%1.65%2.65%
Fair Value$56.34$74.67$99.64
Upside / Downside139.73%217.76%323.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,887.7531,397.2331,915.1132,441.5332,976.6433,520.5734,526.18
Payout Ratio20.61%34.49%48.37%62.24%76.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,365.4810,827.8815,435.7620,192.7025,102.3730,168.5131,936.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate0.65%1.65%2.65%
Year 1 PV (M)10,052.7510,152.6310,252.51
Year 2 PV (M)13,304.8813,570.5713,838.89
Year 3 PV (M)16,159.1616,645.6017,141.72
Year 4 PV (M)18,650.0719,402.3820,177.22
Year 5 PV (M)20,809.4721,863.9822,960.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)603,371.98633,947.47665,750.11
Equity Value (M)682,348.30715,582.63750,121.24
Shares Outstanding (M)7,355.767,355.767,355.76
Fair Value$92.76$97.28$101.98
Upside / Downside294.74%313.97%333.95%

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