Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$163.32 - $386.76$362.45
Multi-Stage$56.31 - $61.66$58.94
Blended Fair Value$210.69
Current Price$10.46
Upside1,914.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.31%2.84%0.310.310.310.250.220.200.170.000.000.26
YoY Growth--0.76%2.02%21.88%15.41%7.93%17.55%0.00%0.00%-100.00%10.00%
Dividend Yield--1.87%2.36%1.96%1.09%1.11%3.26%1.00%0.00%0.00%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.641.030.62
Cash Retained (M)6.446.446.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.64-1.03-0.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.805.415.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.224.224.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.281.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.281.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.561.701.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$163.32$362.45$386.76
Upside / Downside1,461.40%3,365.12%3,597.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.208.749.319.9110.5511.2411.58
Payout Ratio21.50%35.20%48.90%62.60%76.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.763.084.556.208.0510.1210.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2.862.892.91
Year 2 PV (M)3.944.014.09
Year 3 PV (M)4.995.145.28
Year 4 PV (M)6.036.266.50
Year 5 PV (M)7.047.387.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)212.68222.96233.62
Equity Value (M)237.54248.63260.14
Shares Outstanding (M)4.224.224.22
Fair Value$56.31$58.94$61.66
Upside / Downside438.32%463.45%489.53%

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