Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grupo Bafar, S.A.B. de C.V. (BAFARB.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$207.74 - $781.44$349.33
Multi-Stage$130.43 - $142.61$136.41
Blended Fair Value$242.87
Current Price$108.50
Upside123.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2021202020192018201720162015201420132012
DPS0.00%0.00%0.480.430.360.230.000.000.000.520.000.00
YoY Growth--12.36%20.26%58.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.80%1.16%0.89%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.68%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,225.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)456.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,769.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)445.12278.20166.92
Cash Retained (M)1,769.581,769.581,769.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-445.12-278.20-166.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,324.461,491.381,602.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)310.51310.51310.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.274.805.16
LTM Dividend per Share1.471.471.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.274.805.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.736.276.63
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$207.74$349.33$781.44
Upside / Downside91.47%221.96%620.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,225.622,370.282,524.352,688.442,863.183,049.293,140.77
Payout Ratio20.49%34.39%48.29%62.20%76.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)456.04815.191,219.121,672.102,178.832,744.362,905.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)744.88751.94759.00
Year 2 PV (M)1,017.881,037.261,056.83
Year 3 PV (M)1,275.671,312.291,349.60
Year 4 PV (M)1,518.881,577.291,637.37
Year 5 PV (M)1,748.101,832.541,920.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,193.1435,844.6837,559.43
Equity Value (M)40,498.5542,356.0044,282.44
Shares Outstanding (M)310.51310.51310.51
Fair Value$130.43$136.41$142.61
Upside / Downside20.21%25.72%31.44%

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