Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Allianz Ayudhya Capital Public Company Limited (AYUD.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$346.40 - $1,221.74$1,144.95
Multi-Stage$156.79 - $171.53$164.03
Blended Fair Value$654.49
Current Price$35.00
Upside1,769.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.22%6.66%2.571.165.911.541.490.740.571.121.281.61
YoY Growth--121.55%-80.37%283.77%3.24%101.15%30.96%-49.62%-12.50%-20.00%19.05%
Dividend Yield--8.03%3.16%14.59%3.46%4.52%2.51%1.17%2.40%3.92%4.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,391.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)912.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,478.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)478.27298.92179.35
Cash Retained (M)1,478.851,478.851,478.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-478.27-298.92-179.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,000.581,179.931,299.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)389.27389.27389.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.573.033.34
LTM Dividend per Share2.342.342.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.573.033.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.915.385.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$346.40$1,144.95$1,221.74
Upside / Downside889.72%3,171.28%3,390.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,391.362,546.802,712.342,888.653,076.413,276.383,374.67
Payout Ratio38.16%48.53%58.90%69.26%79.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)912.521,235.891,597.442,000.782,449.802,948.743,121.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,144.221,155.071,165.92
Year 2 PV (M)1,369.271,395.351,421.68
Year 3 PV (M)1,587.801,633.381,679.82
Year 4 PV (M)1,799.941,869.161,940.36
Year 5 PV (M)2,005.842,102.732,203.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,127.8555,693.9558,358.25
Equity Value (M)61,034.9363,849.6466,769.35
Shares Outstanding (M)389.27389.27389.27
Fair Value$156.79$164.03$171.53
Upside / Downside347.98%368.64%390.07%

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