Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Axfood AB (publ) (AXFO.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$204.53 - $476.28$299.91
Multi-Stage$157.52 - $171.39$164.33
Blended Fair Value$232.12
Current Price$292.10
Upside-20.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.57%8.73%8.468.117.597.247.006.776.855.818.714.15
YoY Growth--4.26%6.87%4.91%3.43%3.41%-1.21%17.95%-33.35%110.12%13.22%
Dividend Yield--3.75%2.60%3.00%2.38%3.38%3.37%4.01%4.10%6.53%2.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,127.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,889.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)238.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)425.40265.88159.53
Cash Retained (M)238.00238.00238.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-425.40-265.88-159.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-187.40-27.8878.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)216.81216.81216.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.86-0.130.36
LTM Dividend per Share8.718.718.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.86-0.130.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.858.589.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$204.53$299.91$476.28
Upside / Downside-29.98%2.68%63.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,127.002,265.262,412.502,569.312,736.312,914.173,001.60
Payout Ratio88.81%89.05%89.29%89.52%89.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,889.002,017.172,154.032,300.152,456.172,622.762,776.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,824.071,841.361,858.65
Year 2 PV (M)1,761.351,794.901,828.77
Year 3 PV (M)1,700.781,749.611,799.36
Year 4 PV (M)1,642.291,705.441,770.40
Year 5 PV (M)1,585.791,662.381,741.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,636.3426,874.5828,160.22
Equity Value (M)34,150.6135,628.2737,159.30
Shares Outstanding (M)216.81216.81216.81
Fair Value$157.52$164.33$171.39
Upside / Downside-46.07%-43.74%-41.32%

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