Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Analysis Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

American States Water Company (AWR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$193.72 - $673.22$630.90
Multi-Stage$88.07 - $96.28$92.10
Blended Fair Value$361.50
Current Price$73.32
Upside393.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.43%7.63%1.741.591.471.341.231.111.010.950.870.85
YoY Growth--9.51%8.59%9.03%9.50%10.55%9.67%6.92%9.01%2.20%1.80%
Dividend Yield--2.22%2.22%1.65%1.51%1.62%1.36%1.44%1.79%1.96%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.0316.279.76
Cash Retained (M)57.4157.4157.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.03-16.27-9.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.3841.1447.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)38.4438.4438.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.821.071.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.891.891.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.821.071.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.712.963.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$193.72$630.90$673.22
Upside / Downside164.21%760.48%818.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.14138.59147.60157.20167.42178.30183.65
Payout Ratio55.89%62.71%69.53%76.35%83.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.7386.91102.63120.03139.25160.47169.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)80.4881.2582.01
Year 2 PV (M)88.0189.6891.38
Year 3 PV (M)95.3198.05100.84
Year 4 PV (M)102.40106.33110.38
Year 5 PV (M)109.27114.55120.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,910.123,050.683,196.61
Equity Value (M)3,385.583,540.533,701.25
Shares Outstanding (M)38.4438.4438.44
Fair Value$88.07$92.10$96.28
Upside / Downside20.11%25.61%31.31%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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