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Definitive Analysis

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Auburn National Bancorporation, Inc. (AUBN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.12 - $31.52$23.86
Multi-Stage$37.15 - $40.81$38.95
Blended Fair Value$31.40
Current Price$28.44
Upside10.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.08%1.87%1.081.081.061.051.041.021.000.960.940.92
YoY Growth---0.08%1.51%1.03%1.21%1.76%2.20%4.36%2.23%2.28%2.30%
Dividend Yield--5.00%5.69%4.70%3.17%2.71%2.44%2.63%2.46%2.84%3.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.980.620.37
Cash Retained (M)1.151.151.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.98-0.62-0.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.170.540.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.493.493.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.150.22
LTM Dividend per Share1.081.081.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.150.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate-0.13%0.87%1.87%
Fair Value$18.12$23.86$31.52
Upside / Downside-36.28%-16.11%10.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.924.975.015.055.105.145.30
Payout Ratio76.62%79.30%81.97%84.65%87.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.773.944.114.284.454.634.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate-0.13%0.87%1.87%
Year 1 PV (M)3.683.713.75
Year 2 PV (M)3.583.653.72
Year 3 PV (M)3.483.583.69
Year 4 PV (M)3.383.513.66
Year 5 PV (M)3.283.443.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)112.45118.20124.17
Equity Value (M)129.83136.10142.61
Shares Outstanding (M)3.493.493.49
Fair Value$37.15$38.95$40.81
Upside / Downside30.64%36.94%43.49%

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