Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.65 - $138.01$82.29
Multi-Stage$40.30 - $43.89$42.06
Blended Fair Value$62.18
Current Price$35.29
Upside76.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.60%17.13%1.371.140.960.930.870.870.640.390.370.32
YoY Growth--19.94%18.86%3.07%6.91%0.66%35.08%63.88%5.11%15.78%14.07%
Dividend Yield--4.40%3.28%2.74%2.54%2.27%3.96%1.93%1.07%1.06%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)219.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)166.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.9127.4416.47
Cash Retained (M)52.5952.5952.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.91-27.44-16.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.6925.1536.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)90.4490.4490.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.280.40
LTM Dividend per Share1.851.851.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.280.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.942.122.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$54.65$82.29$138.01
Upside / Downside54.86%133.18%291.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)219.53233.80249.00265.19282.42300.78309.80
Payout Ratio76.04%78.83%81.63%84.42%87.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)166.94184.32203.25223.86246.30270.70286.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)167.13168.71170.30
Year 2 PV (M)167.11170.29173.51
Year 3 PV (M)166.89171.68176.57
Year 4 PV (M)166.50172.90179.48
Year 5 PV (M)165.93173.94182.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,810.912,946.683,087.64
Equity Value (M)3,644.473,804.213,969.76
Shares Outstanding (M)90.4490.4490.44
Fair Value$40.30$42.06$43.89
Upside / Downside14.19%19.20%24.38%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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