Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Atlas Copco AB (ATCO-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$154.86 - $518.73$252.98
Multi-Stage$102.84 - $112.25$107.46
Blended Fair Value$180.22
Current Price$158.90
Upside13.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.26%7.40%2.802.301.901.821.741.571.741.691.571.50
YoY Growth--21.82%21.11%4.06%4.50%11.15%-9.83%2.85%7.66%4.93%9.34%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.28%1.44%1.59%1.41%2.02%2.88%2.06%2.18%3.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,595.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,127.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,468.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,519.003,449.382,069.63
Cash Retained (M)13,468.0013,468.0013,468.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,519.00-3,449.38-2,069.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,949.0010,018.6311,398.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,874.984,874.984,874.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.632.062.34
LTM Dividend per Share2.902.902.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.632.062.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.534.955.24
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$154.86$252.98$518.73
Upside / Downside-2.54%59.21%226.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,595.0029,388.6831,298.9433,333.3735,500.0437,807.5438,941.77
Payout Ratio51.19%58.96%66.72%74.48%82.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,127.0017,326.1720,881.5424,825.9029,194.8134,026.7936,021.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15,806.4815,956.3016,106.13
Year 2 PV (M)17,379.1217,710.1418,044.29
Year 3 PV (M)18,849.6419,390.7419,942.10
Year 4 PV (M)20,222.5621,000.2721,800.19
Year 5 PV (M)21,502.2622,540.8323,619.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)407,558.66427,243.90447,682.53
Equity Value (M)501,318.72523,842.18547,194.39
Shares Outstanding (M)4,874.984,874.984,874.98
Fair Value$102.84$107.46$112.25
Upside / Downside-35.28%-32.38%-29.36%

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