Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ASR Nederland N.V. (ASRNL.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$570.50 - $1,576.81$1,477.70
Multi-Stage$226.54 - $247.59$236.87
Blended Fair Value$857.29
Current Price$56.38
Upside1,420.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.96%20.25%2.892.231.601.321.261.161.480.860.790.64
YoY Growth--29.34%39.48%21.75%4.78%7.94%-21.50%71.66%10.00%22.30%40.40%
Dividend Yield--6.31%5.14%3.61%3.25%3.82%3.49%4.29%2.51%3.47%3.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,717.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,259.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)458.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)343.40214.63128.78
Cash Retained (M)458.00458.00458.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-343.40-214.63-128.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.60243.38329.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)216.56216.56216.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.531.121.52
LTM Dividend per Share5.815.815.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.531.121.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.346.947.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$570.50$1,477.70$1,576.81
Upside / Downside911.88%2,520.97%2,696.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,717.001,828.611,947.462,074.052,208.862,352.442,423.01
Payout Ratio73.33%76.66%80.00%83.33%86.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,259.001,401.821,557.881,728.311,914.312,117.192,241.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,301.791,314.131,326.46
Year 2 PV (M)1,343.481,369.071,394.90
Year 3 PV (M)1,384.101,423.831,464.32
Year 4 PV (M)1,423.661,478.411,534.73
Year 5 PV (M)1,462.191,532.811,606.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,142.7144,178.2246,291.63
Equity Value (M)49,057.9351,296.4753,618.18
Shares Outstanding (M)216.56216.56216.56
Fair Value$226.54$236.87$247.59
Upside / Downside301.80%320.14%339.15%

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