Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Astra International Tbk (ASII.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65,641.49 - $160,490.57$150,403.16
Multi-Stage$23,594.01 - $25,811.80$24,682.59
Blended Fair Value$87,542.87
Current Price$5,775.00
Upside1,415.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.71%9.16%518.68649.57281.82131.91183.90211.00189.88167.92167.89215.86
YoY Growth---20.15%130.49%113.65%-28.27%-12.84%11.12%13.08%0.01%-22.22%0.00%
Dividend Yield--10.54%12.49%4.70%2.01%3.49%5.41%2.61%2.30%1.95%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32,670,000.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,426,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)16,244,000.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,534,000.004,083,750.002,450,250.00
Cash Retained (M)16,244,000.0016,244,000.0016,244,000.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,534,000.00-4,083,750.00-2,450,250.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,710,000.0012,160,250.0013,793,750.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40,483.6640,483.6640,483.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share239.85300.37340.72
LTM Dividend per Share405.74405.74405.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share239.85300.37340.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend645.59706.12746.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65,641.49$150,403.16$160,490.57
Upside / Downside1,036.65%2,504.38%2,679.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32,670,000.0034,793,550.0037,055,130.7539,463,714.2542,028,855.6744,760,731.2946,103,553.23
Payout Ratio50.28%58.22%66.17%74.11%82.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,426,000.0020,257,791.0024,518,314.9829,247,117.9134,487,075.3440,284,658.1642,645,786.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18,836,143.7519,014,685.3919,193,227.04
Year 2 PV (M)21,197,782.8921,601,541.1222,009,108.38
Year 3 PV (M)23,511,633.6324,186,568.1324,874,297.23
Year 4 PV (M)25,778,402.7926,769,767.4227,789,454.63
Year 5 PV (M)27,998,788.0029,351,139.9330,755,249.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)837,849,403.43878,317,842.90920,335,104.81
Equity Value (M)955,172,154.49999,241,544.891,044,956,441.64
Shares Outstanding (M)40,483.6640,483.6640,483.66
Fair Value$23,594.01$24,682.59$25,811.80
Upside / Downside308.55%327.40%346.96%

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