Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Archrock, Inc. (AROC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.59 - $73.70$46.36
Multi-Stage$24.71 - $26.96$25.82
Blended Fair Value$36.09
Current Price$26.31
Upside37.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.04%10.60%0.630.550.520.510.510.450.330.200.200.24
YoY Growth--15.22%6.07%1.09%0.58%13.12%34.73%71.12%-2.46%-16.02%3.14%
Dividend Yield--2.41%2.77%5.29%5.54%5.36%11.96%3.34%2.23%1.61%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)265.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)135.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)129.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.0633.1619.90
Cash Retained (M)129.86129.86129.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.06-33.16-19.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.8096.70109.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)174.60174.60174.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.550.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.550.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate5.04%6.04%7.04%
Fair Value$31.59$46.36$73.70
Upside / Downside20.09%76.19%180.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)265.28281.31298.32316.35335.47355.75366.43
Payout Ratio51.05%58.84%66.63%74.42%82.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)135.42165.52198.76235.42275.79320.18338.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate5.04%6.04%7.04%
Year 1 PV (M)150.30151.73153.16
Year 2 PV (M)163.90167.03170.20
Year 3 PV (M)176.28181.36186.54
Year 4 PV (M)187.52194.76202.21
Year 5 PV (M)197.68207.27217.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,438.433,605.243,778.47
Equity Value (M)4,314.114,507.404,707.81
Shares Outstanding (M)174.60174.60174.60
Fair Value$24.71$25.82$26.96
Upside / Downside-6.09%-1.88%2.48%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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