Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.50 - $325.76$115.49
Multi-Stage$41.30 - $45.03$43.13
Blended Fair Value$79.31
Current Price$20.41
Upside288.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.42%9.40%1.671.511.331.010.991.010.960.940.700.71
YoY Growth--10.48%13.05%31.41%2.21%-2.16%5.79%2.18%34.59%-2.05%4.96%
Dividend Yield--7.52%7.40%7.30%4.84%5.31%9.42%5.48%5.92%4.01%4.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,363.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,248.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)115.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)272.60170.38102.23
Cash Retained (M)115.00115.00115.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-272.60-170.38-102.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)-157.60-55.3812.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)683.75683.75683.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.23-0.080.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.831.831.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.23-0.080.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.591.741.84
WACC / Discount Rate8.11%8.11%8.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$64.50$115.49$325.76
Upside / Downside216.02%465.85%1,496.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,363.001,451.601,545.951,646.441,753.451,867.431,923.45
Payout Ratio91.56%91.25%90.94%90.63%90.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,248.001,324.581,405.851,492.081,583.591,680.691,779.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.11%8.11%8.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,213.731,225.241,236.74
Year 2 PV (M)1,180.391,202.871,225.57
Year 3 PV (M)1,147.951,180.901,214.48
Year 4 PV (M)1,116.391,159.321,203.48
Year 5 PV (M)1,085.681,138.121,192.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,498.1523,584.8224,713.07
Equity Value (M)28,242.2829,491.2630,785.91
Shares Outstanding (M)683.75683.75683.75
Fair Value$41.30$43.13$45.03
Upside / Downside102.38%111.33%120.60%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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