Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset Management - GlobalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.17 - $221.03$157.58
Multi-Stage$88.58 - $96.63$92.53
Blended Fair Value$125.06
Current Price$133.27
Upside-6.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.20%-1.01%1.821.691.610.860.920.730.680.610.400.59
YoY Growth--7.91%5.20%86.07%-6.00%26.36%6.98%10.95%53.36%-32.54%-70.69%
Dividend Yield--1.33%1.50%2.54%1.39%1.95%2.17%2.37%2.06%1.64%3.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,230.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,167.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,063.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)846.00528.75317.25
Cash Retained (M)3,063.003,063.003,063.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-846.00-528.75-317.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,217.002,534.252,745.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)598.50598.50598.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.704.234.59
LTM Dividend per Share1.951.951.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.704.234.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.656.186.54
WACC / Discount Rate10.68%10.68%10.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$115.17$157.58$221.03
Upside / Downside-13.59%18.24%65.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,230.004,504.954,797.775,109.635,441.755,795.475,969.33
Payout Ratio27.59%40.07%52.55%65.04%77.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,167.001,805.182,521.383,323.074,218.325,215.925,521.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.68%10.68%10.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,615.681,630.991,646.31
Year 2 PV (M)2,019.802,058.272,097.11
Year 3 PV (M)2,382.562,450.962,520.65
Year 4 PV (M)2,706.952,811.052,918.13
Year 5 PV (M)2,995.763,140.453,290.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,295.4043,289.9845,360.90
Equity Value (M)53,016.1555,381.7157,833.78
Shares Outstanding (M)598.50598.50598.50
Fair Value$88.58$92.53$96.63
Upside / Downside-33.53%-30.57%-27.49%

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