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PT Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Tbk (AMAG.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,712.38 - $8,022.12$7,517.85
Multi-Stage$1,169.17 - $1,276.81$1,222.01
Blended Fair Value$4,369.93
Current Price$360.00
Upside1,113.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%15.49%30.0120.1450.3450.5030.300.000.008.080.006.71
YoY Growth--49.02%-60.00%-0.31%66.67%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-5.58%
Dividend Yield--9.09%6.62%13.32%13.02%12.32%0.00%0.00%2.22%0.00%2.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)199,903.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198,072.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,830.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39,980.7324,987.9614,992.77
Cash Retained (M)1,830.671,830.671,830.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-39,980.73-24,987.96-14,992.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)-38,150.06-23,157.28-13,162.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,952.044,952.044,952.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share-7.70-4.68-2.66
LTM Dividend per Share40.0040.0040.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-7.70-4.68-2.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend32.2935.3237.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.42%6.42%7.42%
Fair Value$2,712.38$7,517.85$8,022.12
Upside / Downside653.44%1,988.29%2,128.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)199,903.65212,735.30226,390.60240,922.43256,387.05272,844.32281,029.65
Payout Ratio99.08%97.27%95.45%93.63%91.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198,072.98206,922.05216,091.04225,584.56235,406.50245,559.89259,952.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.42%6.42%7.42%
Year 1 PV (M)192,153.21193,975.97195,798.72
Year 2 PV (M)186,345.33189,897.42193,483.06
Year 3 PV (M)180,647.51185,837.28191,125.51
Year 4 PV (M)175,057.99181,795.47188,725.60
Year 5 PV (M)169,574.99177,771.94186,282.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,885,977.115,122,156.595,367,382.22
Equity Value (M)5,789,756.136,051,434.676,322,797.96
Shares Outstanding (M)4,952.044,952.044,952.04
Fair Value$1,169.17$1,222.01$1,276.81
Upside / Downside224.77%239.45%254.67%

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