Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Antero Midstream Corporation (AM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.30 - $10.65$8.92
Multi-Stage$13.53 - $14.81$14.16
Blended Fair Value$11.54
Current Price$19.44
Upside-40.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.47%0.00%0.900.900.890.971.221.030.180.070.000.00
YoY Growth--0.51%0.59%-8.14%-20.09%18.92%473.43%172.75%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.03%6.36%8.53%8.96%13.50%48.81%1.25%0.41%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)472.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)440.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.4859.0535.43
Cash Retained (M)32.2232.2232.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.48-59.05-35.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)-62.26-26.83-3.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)483.69483.69483.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.06-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.910.910.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.06-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.30$8.92$10.65
Upside / Downside-62.43%-54.12%-45.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)472.42467.70463.02458.39453.81449.27462.75
Payout Ratio93.18%92.54%91.91%91.27%90.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)440.20432.83425.55418.38411.31404.34428.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)394.94398.97403.00
Year 2 PV (M)354.32361.59368.93
Year 3 PV (M)317.86327.69337.72
Year 4 PV (M)285.14296.96309.14
Year 5 PV (M)255.77269.09282.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,936.375,193.425,461.07
Equity Value (M)6,544.416,847.727,162.82
Shares Outstanding (M)483.69483.69483.69
Fair Value$13.53$14.16$14.81
Upside / Downside-30.40%-27.18%-23.82%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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