Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Allstate Corporation (ALL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,146.15 - $6,210.54$2,239.37
Multi-Stage$671.47 - $735.13$702.71
Blended Fair Value$1,471.04
Current Price$214.65
Upside585.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.06%7.27%3.593.463.463.312.502.442.291.961.821.80
YoY Growth--4.00%-0.11%4.63%32.49%2.30%6.35%16.95%8.02%0.62%1.26%
Dividend Yield--1.74%2.00%3.12%2.39%2.17%2.66%2.41%2.07%2.23%2.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,378.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,016.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,362.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,675.601,047.25628.35
Cash Retained (M)7,362.007,362.007,362.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,675.60-1,047.25-628.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,686.406,314.756,733.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)267.70267.70267.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share21.2423.5925.15
LTM Dividend per Share3.803.803.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share21.2423.5925.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend25.0427.3828.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate5.27%6.27%7.27%
Fair Value$1,146.15$2,239.37$6,210.54
Upside / Downside433.96%943.26%2,793.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,378.008,903.049,460.9810,053.8910,683.9611,353.5111,694.11
Payout Ratio12.13%27.70%43.28%58.85%74.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,016.002,466.284,094.355,916.807,951.5810,218.1610,817.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate5.27%6.27%7.27%
Year 1 PV (M)2,271.232,292.802,314.38
Year 2 PV (M)3,472.323,538.613,605.52
Year 3 PV (M)4,621.034,753.984,889.45
Year 4 PV (M)5,719.035,939.466,166.21
Year 5 PV (M)6,767.987,095.617,435.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)156,900.38164,495.82172,382.62
Equity Value (M)179,751.96188,116.29196,793.99
Shares Outstanding (M)267.70267.70267.70
Fair Value$671.47$702.71$735.13
Upside / Downside212.82%227.38%242.48%

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