Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Hopscotch Global PR Group (ALHOP.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$200.89 - $585.97$549.14
Multi-Stage$80.44 - $88.03$84.17
Blended Fair Value$316.65
Current Price$17.80
Upside1,678.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.80%11.55%0.590.410.000.000.000.410.320.300.200.33
YoY Growth--43.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%26.19%7.73%49.30%-38.19%63.31%
Dividend Yield--3.34%2.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.69%5.10%3.56%2.58%4.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.881.170.70
Cash Retained (M)6.186.186.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.88-1.17-0.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.305.015.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.193.193.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.351.571.72
LTM Dividend per Share1.011.011.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.351.571.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.362.582.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$200.89$549.14$585.97
Upside / Downside1,028.59%2,985.06%3,191.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.3910.0010.6511.3512.0812.8713.25
Payout Ratio34.20%45.36%56.52%67.68%78.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.214.546.027.689.5311.5812.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4.214.254.29
Year 2 PV (M)5.195.285.38
Year 3 PV (M)6.146.316.49
Year 4 PV (M)7.077.347.62
Year 5 PV (M)7.978.368.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)225.83236.74248.06
Equity Value (M)256.40268.28280.61
Shares Outstanding (M)3.193.193.19
Fair Value$80.44$84.17$88.03
Upside / Downside351.90%372.84%394.56%

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